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Shifting Yield Curve

Shifting Yield Curve

| March 25, 2019
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While the U.S. stock market, valued at roughly $30 trillion, may get more press, analysts know the biggest and most well-informed investors are found in the U.S. bond market where the total amount of debt owed through bonds is more than $40 trillion.  And this week, the bond market just flashed its biggest recession warning sign since before the financial crisis.  Specifically, the yield curve - which shows the interest rates of treasury securities by duration - inverted, meaning that short-term government fixed income yields are now higher than some longer-duration parts of the curve.  The move is seen as a sign that growth is anticipated to be higher now than in the future.  Analysts note that an inverted yield curve does not mean a recession is imminent, or even guaranteed, just that one is likely over the next year or so. 

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