As the economy begins to reopen from the coronavirus lockdown economists have predicted just about every scenario possible, from a 1930’s-style long-running economic depression to an immediate recovery and a quick bounce back to new highs. Since the United States economy is predominantly consumer-driven, perhaps some insight can be gleaned from consumer spending plans covering the next 6 months. Uh-oh - only 3 categories of spending are seen as increasing: “Groceries”, “Beer/Wine/Alcohol” and “Candy”. Every single one of the other 18 categories show reduced spending plans. Not the sort of plans from which robust recoveries are made, unfortunately.
| May 25, 2020