Mark Twain reportedly said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. If that holds true, the NASDAQ Composite index may be in for some pain. Michael Kramer at Mott Capital compared the recent performance of the NASDAQ to its performance at the top of the dot.com bubble of 1999. The comparison, he notes, is both “stunning and shocking” in the close similarities. From the March 2020 coronavirus-lows, the NASDAQ has rallied 84% over 163 days. That matches nearly exactly an 86% rally over 151 days by the NASDAQ at the turn of the century. As everyone knows, that rally did not end well. “I don’t know, maybe it is just chance, but still awfully strange,” Kramer wrote. Perhaps a happier outcome will be had this time.
History often repeats
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September 28, 2020