As Americans prepare to go to the polls in what is likely to be one of the heaviest turnouts ever for a midterm election, mutual fund company Oppenheimer released a research note regarding midterm elections and their effects on the market. They note that midterm elections rarely favor the political party of the sitting President. Their research notes the party of the President almost always loses House and Senate seats in the first midterm election, even if the President is relatively popular. Many investors fear that if Republicans lose control of the House it would derail President Trump’s pro-business agenda and bring an end to the current historic bull market. However, the Oppenheimer report showed that of the 15 times that the House changed the party in control at midterm elections, 12 (or 80%) of the following years were positive, and that overall 78% of the years following midterm elections were positive.
Markets Still Tend to Perform Well, Regardless of Outcome
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November 05, 2018