If you went back in time to the start of 2020 and predicted the stock market would be up almost 35% over the year-and-a-half, most people would have probably believed you. After all, other than a few minor bumps the market had been on a solidly upward trajectory over the last few years. But then a global pandemic, a recession, and an explosion in unemployment claims rocked markets around the world. Since 2011, U.S. markets have sharply outperformed international markets. Would that continue when the market picked itself up and began advancing again? Many forecasters predicted that, at long last, international markets – in particular, European markets - would lead the global recovery in stock markets and finally outperform the U.S. Except it didn’t happen. Once again, U.S. markets took the lead and never looked back, with a 34% advance in the S&P 500 since 1/1/2020, almost 5 times better than the 7% gain in the STOXX 600 European Stock Index. (Chart from chartr.co)
Jeffrey Cerny