With this month’s big miss in the jobs number, the debate continues on whether the scarcity of American workers is due to fears of the coronavirus keeping people at home or perhaps due to the effect of generous government handouts. One way to measure the effect of the latter is to compare the continuing claims of the already-unemployed in the states which have kept the extra $300/week unemployment benefit payments vs the continuing claims of the already-unemployed in the states that terminated the extra benefit payments at the end of June. By this measure, the answer is clear: the already-unemployed returned to work at a substantially higher rate in states which dropped the extra $300/week payments – exactly the intended effect. (Chart from WolfStreet.com)
Jeffrey Cerny