With the worst first half for the stock market in 60 years now in the books, many want to know - just how unusual was it? In the graphic below, private bank and investment house Edmond de Rothschild showed not only equities had a difficult first half, but the other side of the investment barbell – bonds - did poorly as well. At Deutsche Bank, using a proxy index for the 10-year U.S. Treasury, research strategist Jim Reid showed it was actually the worst first half since 1788 for the stocks and bonds combo! And Michael Every at Rabobank summed it all up stating, “if you bought stocks in H1, you lost; if bonds, you lost; if commodities, you were doing great until recently; if crypto you lost; if the US dollar, you were fine" but lost purchasing power to inflation. (Chart from Edmond de Rothschild)
Jeffrey Cerny